文章基本信息

标题：How to Detect Publication Bias in Psychological Research
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作者：Frank Renkewitz ; Melanie Keiner
期刊名称：Zeitschrift für Psychologie
印刷版ISSN：2190-8370
电子版ISSN：2151-2604
出版年度：2019
卷号：227
期号：4
页码：261-279
DOI：10.1027/2151-2604/a000386
出版社：Hogrefe Publishing
摘要：Publication biases and questionable research practices are assumed to be two of the main causes of low replication rates. Both of these problems lead to severely inflated effect size estimates in meta-analyses. Methodologists have proposed a number of statistical tools to detect such bias in meta-analytic results. We present an evaluation of the performance of six of these tools. To assess the Type I error rate and the statistical power of these methods, we simulated a large variety of literatures that differed with regard to true effect size, heterogeneity, number of available primary studies, and sample sizes of these primary studies; furthermore, simulated studies were subjected to different degrees of publication bias. Our results show that across all simulated conditions, no method consistently outperformed the others. Additionally, all methods performed poorly when true effect sizes were heterogeneous or primary studies had a small chance of being published, irrespective of their results. This suggests that in many actual meta-analyses in psychology, bias will remain undiscovered no matter which detection method is used.
关键词：meta-analysis;publication bias;optional stopping;bias detection;heterogeneity