文章基本信息

标题：Comparison of projected water availability and demand reveals future hotspots of water stress in the Red River basin, USA
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作者：Hamed Zamani Sabzi ; Hernan A. Moreno ; Rachel Fovargue 等
期刊名称：Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies
印刷版ISSN：2214-5818
出版年度：2019
卷号：26
页码：1-14
DOI：10.1016/j.ejrh.2019.100638
出版社：Elsevier B.V.
摘要：Study region Red River Basin of the South, United States of America. Study focus We investigated the projected changes in water availability and demand across the Red River to identify regions of potential future water stress. The VIC model was calibrated, validated and then run with ensemble forcing from regionally representative global circulation model (GCM) outputs. For different combinations of representative concentration pathways (RCPs) we evaluated the impacts of climate change on streamflows and water availability throughout the basin. To estimate future water demand, we integrated a series of sector-specific regression models fit to historical water usage per county. New hydrological insights for the region Despite discrepancies among GCMs projections, all future scenarios include a strong west-east gradient in water availability. Joint consideration of projected water demand and availability reveals that the distribution of future hotspots of water stress is spatially patchy and generally driven by changes in water demand, rather than availability. These hotspots of future water stress highlight locations of potential water conflicts. Our approach is likely to be applicable to drought-prone river basins worldwide where the spatial patterns of future water availability differ from spatial patterns of future water demand.
关键词：Drought ; U.S. Southern Plains ; Climate change impacts ; Water use ; Environmental conservation planning ; Watershed management