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  • 标题:Improving accuracy of wind resource assessment through feedback loops of operational performance data: A case study in South Africa
  • 其他标题:Improving accuracy of wind resource assessment through feedback loops of operational performance data: A case study in South Africa
  • 本地全文:下载
  • 作者:Katharina Dehnen‐Schmutz ; Paolo Gonthier ; Marie‐Agnès Jacques
  • 期刊名称:Journal of Energy in Southern Africa
  • 印刷版ISSN:1021-447X
  • 出版年度:2019
  • 卷号:30
  • 期号:3
  • 页码:1-10
  • DOI:10.17159/2413-3051/2019/v30i3a5669
  • 出版社:Energy Research Centre
  • 摘要:This study addresses two key objectives using operational performance data from most of the Round 1 wind farms connected to the grid in South Africa: benchmarking of wind farm performance and validation of the pre-construction energy yield assessments. These wind farms were found to perform in line with internationally reported levels of wind farm availability, with a mean energy-based availability of 97.8% during the first two years of operation. The pre-construction yield assessments used for financing in 2012 were found to over-predict project yield (P50) by 4.9%. This was consistent with other validation studies for Europe and North America. It was also noted that all projects exceed the pre-construction P90 estimate. The reasons for this discrepancy were identified, with the largest cause of error being wind flow and wake-modelling errors. Following a reassessment using up to date methodologies from 2018, the mean bias in pre-construction predictions was 1.4%. Highlights: • Operational wind farms in South Africa compared to preconstruction predictions. • Energy yield assessments in 2012 averaged 4.9% over-prediction. • Largest causes of bias wake modelling and long-term windspeed adjustment. • Modern techniques significantly improve prediction accuracy.
  • 关键词:operational yield; wind farms; validation; benchmarking; renewable energy.
  • 其他关键词:operational yield;wind farms;validation;benchmarking;renewable energy
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