文章基本信息

标题：Early estimates of epidemic final sizes
本地全文：下载
作者：Fred Brauer
期刊名称：Journal of Biological Dynamics
印刷版ISSN：1751-3758
电子版ISSN：1751-3766
出版年度：2019
卷号：13
期号：sup1
页码：23-30
DOI：10.1080/17513758.2018.1469792
出版社：Taylor & Francis
摘要：Early in a disease outbreak, it is important to be able to estimate the final size of the epidemic in order to assess needs for treatment and to be able to compare the effects of different treatment approaches. However, it is common for epidemics, especially of diseases considered dangerous, to grow much more slowly than expected. We suggest that by assuming behavioural changes in the face of an epidemic and heterogeneity of mixing in the population it is possible to obtain reasonable early estimates.
关键词：Epidemics ; final size estimates