文章基本信息

标题：Visualizing Fit between Dengue and Climatic Variables on Capitals of the Brazilian Northeast Region by Generalized Additive Models
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作者：Julio Cesar Barreto da Silva ; Hugo Abi Karam ; Carlos José Saldanha Machado 等
期刊名称：Open Journal of Epidemiology
印刷版ISSN：2165-7459
电子版ISSN：2165-7467
出版年度：2018
卷号：8
期号：4
页码：259-275
DOI：10.4236/ojepi.2018.84020
语种：English
出版社：Scientific Research Publishing
摘要：Recent analysis indicates that the numbers of dengue cases may be as high as 400 million/year in the world. According to the Ministry of Brazilian Health, in 2015, there were 1,621,797 probable cases of dengue in the country including all classifications except discarded, the highest number recorded in the historical series since 1990. Many studies have found associations between climatic conditions and dengue transmission, especially using generalized models. In this study, Generalized Additive Models (GAM) was used associated to visreg package to understand the effect of climatic variables on capitals of Northeast Brazilian, from 2001 to 2012. From 12 climatic variables, it was verified that the relative humidity was the one that obtained the highest correlation to dengue. Afterwards, GAM associated with visreg was applied to understand the effects between them. Relative humidity explains the dengue incidence at an adjusted rate of 78.0% (in São Luis-MA) and 82.3% (in Teresina-PI) delayed in, respectively, -1 and -2 months.
关键词：Aedes aegypti;Dengue;GAM;Visreg Package