文章基本信息

标题：A scoring system to predict breast cancer mortality at 5 and 10 years
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作者：Esther Paredes-Aracil ; Antonio Palazón-Bru ; David Manuel Folgado-de la Rosa 等
期刊名称：Scientific Reports
电子版ISSN：2045-2322
出版年度：2017
卷号：7
期号：1
DOI：10.1038/s41598-017-00536-7
语种：English
出版社：Springer Nature
摘要：Although predictive models exist for mortality in breast cancer (BC) (generally all cause-mortality), they are not applicable to all patients and their statistical methodology is not the most powerful to develop a predictive model. Consequently, we developed a predictive model specific for BC mortality at 5 and 10 years resolving the above issues. This cohort study included 287 patients diagnosed with BC in a Spanish region in 2003-2016.
MAIN OUTCOME VARIABLE:time-to-BC death. Secondary variables: age, personal history of breast surgery, personal history of any cancer/BC, premenopause, postmenopause, grade, estrogen receptor, progesterone receptor, c-erbB2, TNM stage, multicentricity/multifocality, diagnosis and treatment. A points system was constructed to predict BC mortality at 5 and 10 years. The model was internally validated by bootstrapping. The points system was integrated into a mobile application for Android. Mean follow-up was 8.6 ± 3.5 years and 55 patients died of BC. The points system included age, personal history of BC, grade, TNM stage and multicentricity. Validation was satisfactory, in both discrimination and calibration. In conclusion, we constructed and internally validated a scoring system for predicting BC mortality at 5 and 10 years. External validation studies are needed for its use in other geographical areas.