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  • 标题:Safety-Information-Driven Human Mobility Patterns with Metapopulation Epidemic Dynamics
  • 本地全文:下载
  • 作者:Bing Wang ; Lang Cao ; Hideyuki Suzuki
  • 期刊名称:Scientific Reports
  • 电子版ISSN:2045-2322
  • 出版年度:2012
  • 卷号:2
  • 期号:1
  • DOI:10.1038/srep00887
  • 语种:English
  • 出版社:Springer Nature
  • 摘要:

    With the help of mass media, people receive information concerning the status of an infectious disease to guide their mobility. Herein, we develop a theoretical framework to investigate the safety-information-driven human mobility with metapopulation epidemic dynamics. Individuals respond to the safety information of a city by taking safe moves (passing cities with a more number of healthy individuals) or unsafe moves (passing cities with a less number of healthy individuals). Our findings show that the critical threshold depends on mobility in such a way that personal execution of safe moves unexpectedly promotes the global spread of a disease, while unsafe moves counterintuitively cause a locally, relatively small outbreak size. Our analysis underlines the role of safety consideration in the spatial spread of an infectious disease with clear implications for the model of mobility driven by individuals' benefit.

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    © 2012 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved

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