文章基本信息

标题：One hundred years of Arctic surface temperature variation due to anthropogenic influence
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作者：John C. Fyfe ; Knut von Salzen ; Nathan P. Gillett 等
期刊名称：Scientific Reports
电子版ISSN：2045-2322
出版年度：2013
卷号：3
期号：1
DOI：10.1038/srep02645
语种：English
出版社：Springer Nature
摘要：Observations show that Arctic-average surface temperature increased from 1900 to 1940, decreased from 1940 to 1970, and increased from 1970 to present. Here, using new observational data and improved climate models employing observed natural and anthropogenic forcings, we demonstrate that contributions from greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions, along with explosive volcanic eruptions, explain most of this observed variation in Arctic surface temperature since 1900. In addition, climate model simulations without natural and anthropogenic forcings indicate very low probabilities that the observed trends in each of these periods were due to internal climate variability alone. Arctic climate change has important environmental and economic impacts and these results improve our understanding of past Arctic climate change and our confidence in future projections.