文章基本信息

标题：A successful real-time forecast of the 2010–11 La Niña event
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作者：Rong-Hua Zhang ; Fei Zheng ; Jiang Zhu 等
期刊名称：Scientific Reports
电子版ISSN：2045-2322
出版年度：2013
卷号：3
期号：1
DOI：10.1038/srep01108
语种：English
出版社：Springer Nature
摘要：During 2010–11, a La Niña condition prevailed in the tropical Pacific. An intermediate coupled model (ICM) is used to demonstrate a real-time forecast of sea surface temperature (SST) evolution during the event. One of the ICM's unique features is an empirical parameterization of the temperature of subsurface water entrained into the mixed layer (T_e). This model provided a good prediction, particularly of the "double dip" evolution of SST in 2011 that followed the La Niña event peak in October 2010. Thermocline feedback, explicitly represented by the relationship between T_e and sea level in the ICM, is a crucial factor affecting the second cooling in 2011. Large negative T_e anomalies were observed to persist in the central equatorial domain during 2010–11, inducing a cold SST anomaly to the east during July–August 2011 and leading to the development of a La Niña condition thereafter.