文章基本信息

标题：Asymmetry of projected increases in extreme temperature distributions
本地全文：下载
作者：Evan Kodra ; Auroop R. Ganguly
期刊名称：Scientific Reports
电子版ISSN：2045-2322
出版年度：2015
卷号：4
期号：1
DOI：10.1038/srep05884
语种：English
出版社：Springer Nature
摘要：A statistical analysis reveals projections of consistently larger increases in the highest percentiles of summer and winter temperature maxima and minima versus the respective lowest percentiles, resulting in a wider range of temperature extremes in the future. These asymmetric changes in tail distributions of temperature appear robust when explored through 14 CMIP5 climate models and three reanalysis datasets. Asymmetry of projected increases in temperature extremes generalizes widely. Magnitude of the projected asymmetry depends significantly on region, season, land-ocean contrast, and climate model variability as well as whether the extremes of consideration are seasonal minima or maxima events. An assessment of potential physical mechanisms provides support for asymmetric tail increases and hence wider temperature extremes ranges, especially for northern winter extremes. These results offer statistically grounded perspectives on projected changes in the IPCC-recommended extremes indices relevant for impacts and adaptation studies.