文章基本信息

标题：Optimization Model for the Russian Electric Power Generation Structure to Reduce Energy Intensity of the Economy
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作者：Alexander N. Semin ; Vadim V. Ponkratov ; Kirill G. Levchenko 等
期刊名称：International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy
电子版ISSN：2146-4553
出版年度：2019
卷号：9
期号：3
页码：379-387
DOI：10.32479/ijeep.7552
出版社：EconJournals
摘要：As a result of the 2007-2008 global financial crisis, traditional value-at-risk (VaR) models used to measure the market risk have been criticised for their inaccuracy. Therefore, alternative models such as long-memory GARCH-type based VaR models have been receiving increased attention in recent literature. In this regard, this study compares the one-day-ahead out-of-sample VaR forecasting performances of FIGARCH, HYGARCH, and FIAPARCH models under normal, student t, and skewed student t distribution assumptions with FHS and HS model performances, which are the most commonly applied models especially by commercial banks in practice, for eight different financial variables including energy commodities (West intermediate crude oil (WTI) and New York Harbour Conventional Gasoline regular (NYHCGR)), stock indices (NIKKEI 225 stock market index and TSEC weighted stock index), foreign exchange rates (Euro/US Dollar (EUR/USD) and Japanese Yen/USD (JPY/USD)), and precious metals (gold and copper). Results clearly show that the FHS model is the most appropriate model for long trading positions, to which the relevant literature has paid more attention, whereas for short trading positions the HYGARCH model under skewed student t distribution assumption should be preferred.
其他摘要：In the context of high energy intensity of the country’s economy, contributing to a decrease in the industry competitiveness of the Russian Federation, it is relevant to develop scientific approaches to energy efficiency provision. The article is aimed at stimulating the optimal structure of electric power generation in Russia, promoting energy conservation and lowering energy intensity of the economy. The Cobb-Douglas production function was used to determine the dependence of the gross electric output on such production factors as labor costs and capital. Based on the expert evaluation method, the sources of electricity generation were differentiated according to the level of labor intensity. An optimization model has been developed for electric power generation structure in Russia in the context of actual energy generation sources: nuclear power plants; natural gas fired thermal power plants , coal and fuel oil fired power plants; hydropower plants; solar power plants; wind power plants; tidal power plants; and biofuel power plants. The percentage changes in the consumption of energy resources and power generation, ensuring a decrease in the energy intensity of the Russian Gross Domestic Product by 19.1%, are argued. The system of optimization measures has been substantiated; their practical implementation will contribute to the steady decline in energy intensity of the Russian economy, effective energy consumption and the growth of the country’s energy potential, with regard to ensuring structural changes in the energy sector.
关键词：Energy Intensity of the Russian Economy; Energy Resources; Optimization Model for Electric Power Generation Structure; Power Industry; Economic Energy Efficiency
其他关键词：Energy Intensity of the Russian Economy; Energy Resources; Optimization Model for Electric Power Generation Structure; Power Industry; Economic Energy Efficiency