文章基本信息

标题：Measuring statistical evidence using relative belief
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作者：Michael Evans
期刊名称：Computational and Structural Biotechnology Journal
印刷版ISSN：2001-0370
出版年度：2016
卷号：14
页码：91-96
DOI：10.1016/j.csbj.2015.12.001
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出版社：Computational and Structural Biotechnology Journal
摘要：A fundamental concern of a theory of statistical inference is how one should measure statistical evidence. Certainly the words “statistical evidence,” or perhaps just “evidence,” are much used in statistical contexts. It is fair to say, however, that the precise characterization of this concept is somewhat elusive. Our goal here is to provide a definition of how to measure statistical evidence for any particular statistical problem. Since evidence is what causes beliefs to change, it is proposed to measure evidence by the amount beliefs change from a priori to a posteriori. As such, our definition involves prior beliefs and this raises issues of subjectivity versus objectivity in statistical analyses. This is dealt with through a principle requiring the falsifiability of any ingredients to a statistical analysis. These concerns lead to checking for prior-data conflict and measuring the a priori bias in a prior.
关键词：Principle of empirical criticism ; Checking for prior-data conflict ; Statistical evidence ; Relative belief ratios