摘要:) occurring from August to the following January. Based on the monthly changes in the probability of the water supply, the guaranteed rate of water supply in the second half year (July-December) was higher than that during the first half year (January-June). The water supply in May was greatly deficient. In addition, the full guaranteed rate of the water supply over the past 17 years only accounted for 17.6%. Therefore, reservoir management practices should reduce the water released prior to May and reserve enough water according to the demands of water receiving areas to improve the efficiency of water resource utilization.