文章基本信息

标题：What Are the Odds? A Structured Approach for Unstructured Problems
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作者：Matthew D. Bailey ; Michael J. Fry
期刊名称：INFORMS : Transactions on Education
印刷版ISSN：1532-0545
电子版ISSN：1532-0545
出版年度：2010
卷号：10
期号：2
DOI：10.1287/ited.1090.0043
出版社：Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences
摘要：Decision makers are often faced with ill-defined problems such as determining the odds of unlikely occurrences. However, class settings often explicitly provide such values within problem sets or case studies. In this paper, we discuss an incident of a waitress at a bar being shown her own stolen identification. Using this problem, we motivate the use of mathematical modeling to decompose a problem to determine the odds of a rare event. Similar problem decomposition methods can be used in a variety of business and engineering problems.
关键词：probability decomposition ; problem-solving methodology ; ill-structured problems