文章基本信息

标题：Simulation-based analysis of a forced distribution performance appraisal system
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作者：Lee Evans ; Ki-Hwan Bae
期刊名称：Journal of Defense Analytics and Logistics
印刷版ISSN：2399-6439
出版年度：2017
卷号：1
期号：2
页码：120-136
DOI：10.1108/JDAL-10-2017-0022
摘要：The paper aims to estimates the limitations of a forced distribution performance appraisal system in identifying the highest performing individuals within an organization. Traditionally, manpower modeling allows organizations to develop plans that meet future human resource requirements by modeling the flow of personnel within an organization. The aim is to quantify the limitations of a performance appraisal system in identifying the best-qualified individuals to fill future requirements.,This paper describes an exploratory study using discrete event simulation based on the assignment, evaluation and promotion history of over 2,500 officers in the US Army. The obtained data provide a basis for estimating simulation inputs that include system structure, system dynamics, human behavior and policy constraints. The simulation approach facilitates modeling officers who receive evaluations as they move throughout the system over time.,The paper provides insights into the effect of system structure and system dynamics on the evaluation outcome of employees. It suggests that decreasing the number of a rater’s subordinates has a significant effect on the accuracy of performance appraisals. However, increasing the amount of time individuals spend on each assignment has little effect on system accuracy.,This research allows an organization’s leadership to evaluate the possible consequences associated with evaluation policy prior to policy implementation.,This work advances a framework in assessing the effect of system dynamics and structure, and the extent to which they limit or enhance the accuracy of an organization’s forced distribution performance appraisal system.
关键词：Military;Performance appraisal;Discrete event simulation;Forced distribution;Manpower modeling