文章基本信息

标题：Study on Saturation Estimation of Initial Perturbations in Ensemble Marine Forecasting based on BGM Method
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作者：Lianglong Da ; Lianglong Da ; Jingyi Liu 等
期刊名称：IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science
印刷版ISSN：1755-1307
电子版ISSN：1755-1315
出版年度：2019
卷号：237
期号：3
页码：032047
DOI：10.1088/1755-1315/237/3/032047
出版社：IOP Publishing
摘要：Because the ocean is a highly complex nonlinear chaotic system, its numerical prediction results are strongly uncertain due to the influence of the initial values and the model itself. Ensemble forecasting is an effective way to reduce the uncertainty of forecasting. The initial perturbations quality, especially the saturation estimation, is of practical significance for improving ensemble forecasting techniques. In this paper, the factors affecting initial perturbation saturation of ensemble forecasting are analyzed by BGM based on ROMS model, and the perturbation saturation velocities of the two methods are compared. The results show that the saturation velocity of the initial perturbation is faster than that of the initial perturbation space structure. The larger the initial perturbation is, the higher the saturation degree and velocity are, and the saturation time of the same variable varies at different layers. The saturation of different variables is also different; the perturbation saturation speed of the regional adjust perturbation method is faster than that of the classical static perturbation method.