文章基本信息

标题：Ex-Ante Analysis of Economic, Social and Environmental Impacts of Large-Scale Renewable and Nuclear Energy Targets for Global Electricity Generation by 2030
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作者：Almutairi, Kamel ; Thoma, Greg ; Durand-Morat, Alvaro 等
期刊名称：Sustainability
印刷版ISSN：2071-1050
出版年度：2018
卷号：10
期号：8
页码：1-25
出版社：MDPI, Open Access Journal
摘要：This study assesses the economic, social and environmental impacts of renewable and nuclear energy targets for global electricity generation by 2030. It examines different regions, as they might experience different impacts depending on the structures of their economies and their local natural resources, to understand the impact of these targets on their economics and well-being of their people. These regions are: Saudi Arabia, the United States (US), China, India, Europe and Rest of World (ROW). A well-known Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model, the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP), is modified and used to predict global economic shifts that would be triggered by two scenarios. The business as usual (BAU) scenario assumes that the current electricity mix remains unchanged until 2030. The Renewable and Nuclear Energy (RNE) scenario is based on the International Energy Outlook (IEO) 2016 prediction. The analysis shows that the GDP value of all regions, except India, is affected negatively. The study shows a loss of 4.45 million jobs worldwide in the RNE compared to the BAU. Finally, the implementation of planned renewable and nuclear energy slightly benefits the environment but not enough to mitigate rise in global temperature.
关键词：Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model; economic impacts; social impacts; green jobs; renewable and nuclear energy; CO 2 emissions