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  • 标题:Estimation of under-reported visceral Leishmaniasis (Vl) cases in Bihar: a Bayesian approach
  • 作者:A Ranjan ; T Bhatnagar
  • 期刊名称:Indian Journal of Community Health
  • 印刷版ISSN:2248-9509
  • 出版年度:2013
  • 卷号:25
  • 期号:4
  • 页码:386-390
  • 语种:English
  • 出版社:Indian Association of Preventive and Social Medicine Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand Chapter
  • 摘要:Background: Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is a major health problem in the state of Bihar and adjoining areas in India. In absence of any active surveillance mechanism for the disease, there seems to be gross under-reporting of VL cases. Objective: The objective of this study was to estimate extent of under-reporting of VL cases in Bihar using pooled analysis of published papers. Method: We calculated the pooled common ratio (RRMH) based on three studies and combined it with a prior distribution of ratio using inverse-variance weighting method. Bayesian method was used to estimate the posterior distribution of the “under-reporting factor” (ratio of unreported to reported cases). Results: The posterior distribution of ratio of unreported to reported cases yielded a mean of 3.558, with 95% posterior limits of 2.81 and 4.50. Conclusion: Bayesian approach gives evidence to the fact that the total number of VL cases in the state may be nearly more than three times that of currently reported figures.
  • 其他摘要:Background: Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is a major health problem in the state of Bihar and adjoining areas in India. In absence of any active surveillance mechanism for the disease, there seems to be gross under-reporting of VL cases. Objective: The objective of this study was to estimate extent of under-reporting of VL cases in Bihar using pooled analysis of published papers. Method: We calculated the pooled common ratio (RRMH) based on three studies and combined it with a prior distribution of ratio using inverse-variance weighting method. Bayesian method was used to estimate the posterior distribution of the “under-reporting factor” (ratio of unreported to reported cases). Results: The posterior distribution of ratio of unreported to reported cases yielded a mean of 3.558, with 95% posterior limits of 2.81 and 4.50. Conclusion: Bayesian approach gives evidence to the fact that the total number of VL cases in the state may be nearly more than three times that of currently reported figures.
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