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标题：Selection into medicine: the predictive validity of an outcome-based procedure
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作者：Sanne Schreurs ; Kitty B. Cleutjens ; Arno M. M. Muijtjens 等
期刊名称：BMC Medical Education
印刷版ISSN：1472-6920
出版年度：2018
卷号：18
期号：1
页码：214-223
DOI：10.1186/s12909-018-1316-x
出版社：BioMed Central
摘要：Medical schools must select students from a large pool of well-qualified applicants. A challenging issue set forward in the broader literature is that of which cognitive and (inter)personal qualities should be measured to predict diverse later performance. To address this gap, we designed a ‘backward chaining’ approach to selection, based on the competences of a ‘good doctor’. Our aim was to examine if this outcome-based selection procedure was predictive of study success in a medical bachelor program. We designed a multi-tool selection procedure, blueprinted to the CanMEDS competency framework. The relationship between performance at selection and later study success across a three-year bachelor program was examined in three cohorts. Study results were compared between selection-positive and selection-negative (i.e. primarily rejected) students. Selection-positive students outperformed their selection-negative counterparts throughout the entire bachelor program on assessments measuring cognitive (e.g. written exams), (inter)personal and combined outcomes (i.e. OSCEs). Of the 30 outcome variables, selection-positive students scored significantly higher in 11 cases. Fifteen other, non-significant between-group differences were also in favor of the selection-positives. An overall comparison using a sign test indicated a significant difference between both groups (p < 0.001), despite equal pre-university GPAs. The use of an outcome-based selection approach seems to address some of the predictive validity limitations of commonly-used selection tools. Selection-positive students significantly outperformed their selection-negative counterparts across a range of cognitive, (inter)personal, and mixed outcomes throughout the entire three-year bachelor in medicine.