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标题：Tsunami Mortality Estimates and Vulnerability Mapping in Aceh, Indonesia
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作者：Shannon Doocy ; Yuri Gorokhovich ; Gilbert Burnham 等
期刊名称：American journal of public health
印刷版ISSN：0090-0036
出版年度：2007
卷号：97
期号：Suppl 1
页码：S146-S151
DOI：10.2105/AJPH.2006.095240
语种：English
出版社：American Public Health Association
摘要：Objectives. We aimed to quantify tsunami mortality and compare approaches to mortality assessment in the emergency context in Aceh, Indonesia, where the impact of the 2004 tsunami was greatest. Methods. Mortality was estimated using geographic information systems–based vulnerability models and demographic methods from surveys of tsunami-displaced populations. Results. Tsunami mortality in Aceh as estimated by demographic models was 131066 and was similar to official figures of 128063; however, it was a conservative estimate of actual mortality and is substantially less than official estimates of 168561 presumed dead, which included those classified as missing. Tsunami impact was greatest in the district of Aceh Jaya, where an estimated 27.0% (n=23862) of the population perished; Aceh Besar and Banda Aceh were also severely affected, with mortality at 21.0% (n = 61 650) and 11.5% (n = 25 903), respectively. Mortality was estimated at 23.7% for the population at risk and 5.6% overall. Conclusions. Mortality estimates were derived using methodologies that can be applied in future disasters when predisaster demographic data are not available. Models could be useful in the early stages of disaster response by facilitating geographic targeting and management of humanitarian assistance. The tsunami on December 26, 2004, devastated coastal areas in the Indian Ocean region and resulted in massive mortality and displacement. The tsunami received significant media attention and an enormous international response, both in terms of financial aid and humanitarian assistance. Indonesia’s Aceh province was most affected by the tsunami because of both its proximity to the earthquake epicenter and its large coastal population. Approximately 1 year after the tsunami, Indonesian government estimates totaled 129 775 deaths, 38 786 missing, and 504 518 tsunami-displaced persons in Aceh Province. 1 Over the past several decades, natural disasters have become more frequent, and the populations affected by disasters annually have been increasing. 2 The frequency and impact of natural disasters has led to a need to improve the understanding of vulnerability. Development of methods for the estimation of the numbers of deaths and death rates and population impacts using data obtained in the postdisaster context offers the possibility of assessing the impact of disasters in the context of widespread displacement and in the face of often inadequate demographic data. Although information on the tsunami-affected population in Aceh Province is available from both the Indonesian Bureau of Reconstruction and Recovery (BRR) and the Indonesian Central Bureau of Statistics, development of a methodology to estimate mortality in the absence of predisaster demographic information was seen as useful, because in many natural disasters, particularly those in less developed countries, accurate population data are not available for impact estimation. Currently available data from BRR and Indonesian Central Bureau of Statistics, as well as forthcoming findings on tsunami impact, are useful for comparing the accuracy of findings from the present study and for assessing goodness-of-fit of models developed. The full impact of the 2004 tsunami in Aceh Province, in terms of lives lost, may never be completely measured; however, there is clear evidence of differential impact by both age and gender, where children, older adults, and women were disproportionately affected. In an instantaneous hazard, such as an earthquake or a tsunami, it might be expected that deaths would occur more uniformly than in other disasters, such as droughts, which result in food insecurity and famine, mortality differentials within the population would be expected as a result of a variety of selection factors that play out over time. The continued development of mortality estimation methods can provide insight for impact estimation in future disasters where population data and resources are scarce. We sought to estimate the mortality impact of the 2004 tsunami in Aceh Province, Indonesia, using data from surveys of the tsunami-displaced population and vulnerability models that were developed after the disaster.