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标题：Long-Term Trends in Adolescent and Young Adult Smoking in the United States: Metapatterns and Implications
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作者：David E. Nelson ; Paul Mowery ; Kat Asman 等
期刊名称：American journal of public health
印刷版ISSN：0090-0036
出版年度：2008
卷号：98
期号：5
页码：905-915
DOI：10.2105/AJPH.2007.115931
语种：English
出版社：American Public Health Association
摘要：Objectives. We sought to describe long-term adolescent and young adult smoking trends and patterns. Methods. We analyzed adolescent data from Monitoring the Future, 1976 to 2005, and young adult (aged 18–24 years) data from the National Health Interview Survey, 1974 to 2005, overall and in subpopulations to identify trends in current cigarette smoking prevalence. Results. Five metapatterns emerged: we found (1) a large increase and subsequent decrease in overall smoking over the past 15 years, (2) a steep decline in smoking among Blacks through the early 1990s, (3) a gender gap reversal among older adolescents and young adults who smoked over the past 15 years, (4) similar trends in smoking for most subgroups since the early 1990s, and (5) a large decline in smoking among young adults with less than a high school education. Conclusions. Long-term patterns for adolescent and young adult cigarette smoking were decidedly nonlinear, and we found evidence of a cohort effect among young adults. Continued strong efforts and a long-term societal commitment to tobacco use prevention are needed, given the unprecedented declines in smoking among most subpopulations since the mid- to late 1990s. Cigarette smoking has long been recognized as having high mortality, morbidity, and economic costs. 1 ^– 6 Because of the addictive nature of nicotine, 3 ^, 7 preventing cigarette smoking is an especially important societal goal. 4 ^, 8 Most regular smokers smoke their first cigarette by age 18 years, 9 ^– 11 although there is some evidence that the age of initiation may be increasing. 9 ^, 11 Because smoking initiation rarely occurs at later ages, the critical time for prevention occurs in adolescence and early adulthood. 4 ^, 9 ^– 13 After a sharp increase in adolescent and young adult smoking that began during the late 1980s, there was a rapid and unprecedented decline in prevalence, especially among adolescents, beginning in the mid-to late 1990s. 9 ^, 14 ^, 15 Most surveys suggest that adolescent prevalence has slowed or leveled off over the past few years. 11 ^, 14 ^, 15 Examining long-term trend data among adolescents and young adults can serve several purposes. Long-term trend data can help assess the effectiveness of past and existing prevention activities, assess the need for future prevention efforts, and predict the future burden of tobacco-related health effects. 16 Building on previous national trend studies, 3 ^, 12 ^– 26 we used smoothing techniques and regression analyses to comprehensively describe overall and subgroup-specific long-term cigarette smoking trends and to identify meta-patterns among adolescents and young adults in the United States.