文章基本信息

标题：Comparison of non-homogeneous regression models for probabilistic wind speed forecasting
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作者：Sebastian Lerch ; Thordis L. Thorarinsdottir
期刊名称：Tellus A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography
电子版ISSN：1600-0870
出版年度：2013
卷号：65
期号：1
页码：1-13
DOI：10.3402/tellusa.v65i0.21206
摘要：In weather forecasting, non-homogeneous regression (NR) is used to statistically post-process forecast ensembles in order to obtain calibrated predictive distributions. For wind speed forecasts, the regression model is given by a truncated normal (TN) distribution, where location and spread derive from the ensemble. This article proposes two alternative approaches which utilise the generalised extreme value (GEV) distribution. A direct alternative to the TN regression is to apply a predictive distribution from the GEV family, while a regime-switching approach based on the median of the forecast ensemble incorporates both distributions. In a case study on daily maximum wind speed over Germany with the forecast ensemble from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), all three approaches significantly improve the calibration as well as the overall skill of the raw ensemble with the regime-switching approach showing the highest skill in the upper tail.
关键词：ensemble post-processing ; non-homogeneous regression ; predictive distribution ; probabilistic forecasting ; weather forecasting ; wind speed