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标题：The use of simple epidemiological models in the evaluation of disease control programmes: a case study of trachoma
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作者：T. K. Sundaresan ; F. A. Assaad
期刊名称：Bulletin of the World Health Organization
印刷版ISSN：0042-9686
出版年度：1973
卷号：48
期号：6
页码：709-714
语种：English
出版社：World Health Organisation
摘要：One of the problems in the quantitative evaluation of disease control programmes is the definition of a “critical” index reflecting the effect of control measures on the various aspects of a polymorphic disease. Trachoma is an example of a polymorphic disease in which its activity, intensity, severity, etc., are affected by control measures, including their timing. A simple epidemiological model indicated that the “force of infection” is a sufficient parameter to describe changes in the disease picture following a control programme. Use was made of two trachoma prevalence sample surveys in the same communities, one carried out in 1960-61 and the other in 1968-69. Total trachoma age-prevalence histograms were constructed and simple catalytic curves fitted with the help of a computer programme developed for this purpose. A reduction in the force of infection in the cohort born after the institution of control measures was found. Its projection to the whole community indicated that the control programme had reduced the disease load to 20.1%, i.e., about two-fifths of its former level. Full text Full text is available as a scanned copy of the original print version. Get a printable copy (PDF file) of the complete article (728K), or click on a page image below to browse page by page. Links to PubMed are also available for Selected References . 709 710 711 712 713 714