文章基本信息

标题：Keynes’ Analytical System as an Econometric Tool: Examining Macroeconomic Trends in the U.S. from 1950s to 1980s
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作者：Manuel A. R. Da Fonseca
期刊名称：Theoretical Economics Letters
印刷版ISSN：2162-2078
电子版ISSN：2162-2086
出版年度：2018
卷号：08
期号：10
页码：1721-1739
DOI：10.4236/tel.2018.810112
语种：English
出版社：Scientific Research Publishing
摘要：The initial goal of this paper is to develop the standard Keynes’ analytical system into a dynamic macro-econometric model, which is then applied to the analysis of macroeconomic indicators for the U.S. from 1950s to 1980s—a period marked by strong volatility of inflation, exchange rates and commodity prices. Based on the results obtained and, in particular, on the model’s structure and exogenous variables, it is possible to single out the main factors that explain the macro-trends observed in the American economy. Further, a second and more important goal is to evaluate if a simple macro-dynamic model can be a relevant tool in empirical analysis of macroeconomic developments. The results obtained indicate that, although the elements of the Keynesian system are most often used in a purely theoretical perspective, a macro-econometric model based on those elements can be successfully used in reproducing overall macroeconomic variables in a certain period—and the determinants of those macro-trends can be traced to the model’s exogenous variables.
关键词：Macro-Econometric Modeling;Quantitative Macroeconomic Analysis;Estimation of Structural Models;Solution of Nonlinear Equations