文章基本信息

标题：Economic Growth, Foreign Investments and Exports in Romania: A VECM Analysis
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作者：Oana Cristina Popovici ; Adrian Cantemir Călin
期刊名称：The Romanian Economic Journal
印刷版ISSN：1454-4296
出版年度：2016
期号：61
页码：95
出版社：Editura ASE
摘要：The present paper deals with the relationship between GDP, FDI and merchandise exports using a vector error-correction model (VECM). The empirical model is based on quarterly data for the period 2005-2014 in Romania. The Granger causality test indicate a positive significant bidirectional relationship and between FDI and GDP and a unidirectional relationship between GDP and exports. The variance decomposition indicates that more than 50% of the fluctuations in FDI are explained by the shocks in GDP, while the influence of shocks in exports is quite low. Fluctuations in GDP are largely explained by the shocks occurring in this variable. As regards exports, 44% of fluctuations are due to FDI, while the impact of GDP reaches 13-15% after 10 quarters.
关键词：VECM ; GDP ; foreign direct investment ; export .