文章基本信息

标题：Predicting Match Outcomes in the English Premier League: Which Will Be the Final Rank?
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作者：Francisco Louzada ; Adriano K. Suzuki ; Luis E. B. Salasa 等
期刊名称：Journal of Data Science
印刷版ISSN：1680-743X
电子版ISSN：1683-8602
出版年度：2014
卷号：12
期号：2
页码：235-254
出版社：Tingmao Publish Company
摘要：In any sport competition, there is a strong interest in knowingwhich team shall be the champion at the end of the championship. Besidesthis, the end result of a match, the chance of a team to be qualied fora specic tournament, the chance of being relegated, the best attack, thebest defense, among others, are also subject of interest. In this paper wepresent a simple method with good predictive quality, easy implementation,low computational eort, which allows the calculation of all the interestingquantities above. Following Lee (1997), we estimate the average goals scoredby each team by assuming that the number of goals scored by a team ina match follows a univariate Poisson distribution but we consider linearmodels that express the sum and the dierence of goals scored in terms ofve covariates: the goal average in a match, the home-team advantage, theteam's oensive power, the opponent team's defensive power and a crisisindicator. The methodology is applied to the 2008-2009 English PremierLeague.
关键词：Linear Model; Premier Football League; Simulation; Poisson;Distribution.