文章基本信息

标题：An Open Economy Quarterly Projection Model for Sri Lanka
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作者：Amarasekara, Chandranath ; Anand, Rahul ; Ehelepola, Kithsiri 等
期刊名称：IMF Policy Discussion Papers
出版年度：2018
期号：June
出版社：International Monetary Fund
摘要：This study documents a semi-structural model developed for Sri Lanka. This model, extended with a fiscal sector block, is expected to serve as a core forecasting model in the process of the Central Bank of Sri Lanka’s move towards flexible inflation targeting. The model includes a forward-looking endogenous interest rate and foreign exchange rate policy rules allowing for flexible change in policy behavior. It is a gap model that allows for simultaneous identification of business cycle position and long-term equilibrium. The model was first calibrated and then its data-fit was improved using Bayesian estimation technique with relatively tight priors.