摘要:Accurate counting of protestors is of great significance to the management of societal security. SinceOctober 2016, a series of candlelight protests, particularly calling for the then President Park Geun-Hye toresign, have occurred in Korea. There were many issues surrounding the way in which the Korean nationalpolice managed and responded to the candle-lit rallies, and one of which being the aforementioned crowdcounting issue. This is because there have also been considerable estimate differences between the Koreanpolice force and the organizers. Noticeably, the crowd estimates provided by the police have been harshly criticized for intentionally underestimating the number of protest participants. What is the reason behind the differences? The purpose of crowd counting is to enable the police to conduct social order maintenance and safety management. For this reason, police employ the method of calculating maximum figures at any one time, noticeably based on the Fermi Estimate. However, the purpose of the organizers’ is not only to demonstrate the public support of their causes but also to publicize the wide recognition of their success. For this reason, the organizers prefer to use the cumulative counting results. Their purposes and resulting methods of estimating crowds are significantly different from each other and so, it is very natural that the estimate results should be different as well. In this context, the research attempts to compare the two methods: “Maximum Figure at Any One Time” and “Cumulative Figure” methods, and further, analyzes and draws methodological preconditions and limitations respectively.
关键词:Societal Security; Protest; Crowd Counting; Maximum Figure at Any One Time; Cumulative;Figure; Fermi Estimate