文章基本信息

标题：Are the Spanish Long-Term Unemployed Unemployable?
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作者：Samuel Bentolila ; J. Ignacio García-Pérez ; Marcel Jansen 等
期刊名称：CEMFI Working Papers / Centro de Estudios Monetarios y Financieros, Madrid
出版年度：2017
卷号：2017
出版社：Centro de Estudios Monetarios y Financieros, Madrid
摘要：Long-term unemployment reached unprecedented levels in Spain in the wake of the GreatRecession and it still affects around 57% of the unemployed. We document the sources thatcontributed to the rise in long-term unemployment and analyze its persistence using state-of-the-artduration models. We find pervasive evidence of negative duration dependence, while personalcharacteristics such as mature age, lack of experience, and entitlement to unemployment benefitsare key to understand the cross-sectional differences in the incidence of long-term unemployment.The negative impact of low levels of skill and education is muted by the large share of temporarycontracts, but once we restrict attention to employment spells lasting at least one month thesefactors also contribute to a higher risk of long-term unemployment. Surprisingly, workers from theconstruction sector do not fare worse than similar workers from other sectors. Finally, self-reportedreservation wages are found to respond strongly to the cycle, but much less to individualunemployment duration. In view of these findings, we argue that active labour market policies shouldplay a more prominent role in the fight against long-term unemployment while early activation shouldbe used to curb inflows.
关键词：Long-term unemployment; great recession; duration models; survival probability; Spain.