文章基本信息

标题：An Update on the Neutral Rate of Interest
本地全文：下载
作者：José Dorich ; Abeer Reza ; Subrata Sarker 等
期刊名称：Financial System Review
印刷版ISSN：1705-1290
电子版ISSN：1705-1304
出版年度：2017
出版社：Bank of Canada
摘要：The neutral rate of interest is the real policy rate that prevails when aneconomy’s output is at its potential level and inflation is at the centralbank’s target, after the effects of all cyclical shocks have dissipated. Theneutral rate serves as a benchmark to gauge the degree of monetarystimulus in place and provides a medium- to long-run anchor for the realpolicy rate. Estimates of the global neutral rate have been steadily falling over the pastfew decades. These point estimates are subject to considerable uncertainty. Several factors affecting the global economy’s supply of savings anddemand for investment determine the evolution of the global neutral rate.In articles and speeches in 2014 and 2015, the Bank of Canada documentedhow the evolution of those factors had explained the declineof the neutral rate until then. In this article, we review those factors toreassess our view of the neutral rate. Since 2014, there has been a reduction in the global savings glut emanatingfrom emerging-market economies and oil-exporting countries.But several other factors, such as population aging coupled with highlife expectancy, the elevated level of inequality and high corporate savings,are all likely to continue supporting a high desired rate of saving inadvanced economies over the medium term. Global desired investment,in contrast, will likely remain modest in response to low growth in trendproductivity and labour force. Overall, our reassessment is that the globalneutral rate of interest will likely remain low for some time. Both global and domestic factors have likely reduced the Canadian neutralrate. The Bank’s estimate of the Canadian real neutral rate is a rangefrom 0.5 to 1.5 per cent, down from a range of 1.0 to 2.0 per cent threeyears ago. This low neutral rate has important implications for monetarypolicy and financial stability