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  • 标题:Saving, investment, capital stock and current account projections in long-term scenarios
  • 本地全文:下载
  • 作者:Yvan Guillemette ; Andrea De Mauro ; David Turner
  • 期刊名称:Economics Department Working Papers / OECD
  • 印刷版ISSN:0259-4633
  • 出版年度:2018
  • 卷号:2018
  • 出版社:Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)
  • 摘要:

    The paper describes the framework used in long-term economic scenarios for the projection of the saving rate, investment, capital stock and current account. The saving rate is determined according to an estimated equation which suggests that demographics, captured by the old-age dependency rate and life expectancy, is a major driver, with additional effects from the fiscal balance, labour productivity growth, the net oil trade balance, the availability of credit and the level of social protection. The evolution of the business sector capital stock depends on the economy’s cyclical position, product market regulation, employment protection legislation and the user cost of capital, and may be constrained by current account deficits depending on the degree of capital account openness. Business sector investment is derived from the capital stock projection via the usual stock-flow identity. The public sector capital stock-to-output ratio is assumed to be constant in the baseline scenario, but a public investment shock can be simulated in alternative scenarios. The current account balance is obtained as the difference between national investment and saving, and in turn determines the evolution of the net international investment position. A global interest rate premium helps to bring global saving and investment into balance.

  • 关键词:projection; investment; long-term scenarios; current account; capital stock; Saving rate; long-term model
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