文章基本信息

标题：Financial Development and Output Volatility: A Cross-Sectional Panel Data Analysis
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作者：M. Tariq Majeed ; Ayesha Noreen
期刊名称：The Lahore Journal of Economics
印刷版ISSN：1811-5438
电子版ISSN：1811-5446
出版年度：2018
卷号：23
期号：1
页码：97-141
出版社：Lahore School of Economics
摘要：This paper aims to provide a more comprehensive understanding of the impact of financial developments on output volatility. Using cross-sectional and panel datasets for 79 countries from 1961 to 2012, we find that financial expansion plays a significant role in mitigating output volatility, although the evidence is weak in some cases. The role of financial stability is more prominent than that of other measures of financial growth in mitigating output volatility. The volatility of terms of trade and inflation contributes positively to increasing output volatility. We also evaluate the channels through which financial developments can affect output volatility. Our model investigates the link between financial growth and output volatility through two potential channels, using four measures of financial development. The volatility of inflation and of terms of trade are used as proxies for monetary sector and real sector volatility, respectively. Financial development plays a mixed role in amplifying or mitigating output volatility through real and monetary sector volatility. Overall, there is some evidence to suggest that financial development amplifies monetary sector volatility, but weaker evidence that real sector volatility is reduced by financial development.
关键词：Output volatility; financial development; panel data.