文章基本信息

标题：External Debt Management in Pakistan – A Market Based Assessment
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作者：Jamshed Y. Uppal
期刊名称：The Lahore Journal of Economics
印刷版ISSN：1811-5438
电子版ISSN：1811-5446
出版年度：2017
卷号：22
期号：Special Edition
页码：25-51
出版社：Lahore School of Economics
摘要：Economists typically use multiple indicators to assess the burden of external debt, such as the ratios of the stock of debt to exports and to gross national product, and the ratios of debt service to exports and to government revenue. As opposed to those methodologies, this article examines the Pakistan’s external debt position using a market based approach which analyzes the marginal costs of external debt as indicated by the yields on the country’s Eurobonds and the spreads on the Credit Default Swaps (CDS) traded in the international markets. The results show a sharp decline in the yields on the Pakistani Eurobonds from their peak reached during the global financial crisis (GFC) period and this decline was largely driven by quantitative easing and the resultant low interest rates in the international debt markets. Also, the continued decline in the yields in the more recent period, 2013-2017, was due to strengthening of the county’s borrowing capacity over the period. The analysis also shows that Pakistani yields seem to be converging to yields for other Asian countries, even though that the yield-spreads between Pakistan and others countries are still substantial. In conclusion the decrease in bond yields and CDS spreads may signal that the country’s external debt is currently at sustainable levels.
关键词：External debt; Debt management; economic growth; Pakistan.