摘要：We constructed a simulation model to compute the incidences of highly credible gastrointestinal illness (HCGI) in recreational bathers at two intermittently contaminated beaches of Orange County, California. Assumptions regarding spatial and temporal bathing patterns were used to determine exposure levels over a 31-month study period. Illness rates were calculated by applying previously reported relationships between enterococcus density and HCGI risk to the exposure data. Peak enterococcus concentrations occurred in late winter and early spring, but model results showed that most HCGI cases occurred during summer, attributable to elevated number of exposures. Approximately 99% of the 95,010 illness cases occurred when beaches were open. Model runs were insensitive to 0-10% swimming activity assumed during beach closure days. Comparable illness rates resulted under clustered and uniform bather distribution scenarios. HCGI attack rates were within federal guidelines of tolerable risk when averaged over the study period. However, tolerable risk thresholds were exceeded for 27 total days and periods of at least 6 consecutive days. Illness estimates were sensitive to the functional form and magnitude of the enterococcus density-HCGI relationships. The results of this study contribute to an understanding of recreational health risk in coastal waters.
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