文章基本信息

标题：Modelling regional variation of first-time births in Denmark 1980-1994 by an age-period-cohort model
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作者：Lau Caspar Thygesen ; Lisbeth B. Knudsen ; Niels Keiding 等
期刊名称：Demographic Research
印刷版ISSN：1435-9871
电子版ISSN：1435-9871
出版年度：2005
卷号：13
页码：573-596
DOI：10.4054/DemRes.2005.13.23
出版社：Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research
摘要：Despite the small size of Denmark, there have traditionally been rather consistent regional differences in fertility rates. We apply the statistical age-period-cohort model to include the effect of these three time-related factors thereby concisely illuminating the regional differences of first-time births in Denmark. From the Fertility of Women and Couples Dataset we obtain data on number of births by nulliparous women by year (1980-1994), age (15-45) and county of residence. We show that the APC-model describes the fertility rates of nulliparous women satisfactorily. To catch the regional variation an interaction parameter between age and county is necessary, which provides a surprisingly good description suggesting that the county-specific age-distributions of first-time fertility rates differ. Our results are in general agreement with the 'moral geography' concepts of Tonboe (2001).
关键词：age-period-cohort models;Denmark;fertility;fertility rates;nulliparous women;regional variation