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  • 标题:Demographic translation and tempo effects: An accelerated failure time perspective
  • 作者:Germán Rodriguez
  • 期刊名称:Demographic Research
  • 印刷版ISSN:1435-9871
  • 电子版ISSN:1435-9871
  • 出版年度:2006
  • 卷号:14
  • 页码:85-110
  • DOI:10.4054/DemRes.2006.14.6
  • 出版社:Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research
  • 摘要:In this paper I review the concept of tempo effects in demography, focusing on the tempo adjustments proposed by Bongaarts and Feeney and drawing on the work of Ryder and Zeng and Land. I show that the period-shift model that underlies the proposed adjustments can be motivated from an accelerated failure time cohort perspective. I propose alternative measures of tempo under changing fertility and mortality that share a synthetic cohort interpretation with the adjusted measure of quantum. I stress similarities between the results for fertility and mortality, particularly in terms of mean age of childbearing and mean age at death, but also note some important distinctions. I conclude that the fertility adjustments can help distinguish quantum and tempo effects, but argue that in the case of mortality the Bongaarts-Feeney measure of tempo-adjusted life expectancy differs from conventional estimates because it reflects past mortality.
  • 关键词:age at death;age of childbearing;alternative measures of tempo;childbearing;death;fertility;fertility adjustments;measurements;mortality;period-shift model;tempo adjustment;tempo effects
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