文章基本信息

标题：Modelling the demographic impact of HIV/AIDS in South Africa and the likely impact of interventions
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作者：Leigh F. Johnson ; Rob Dorrington
期刊名称：Demographic Research
印刷版ISSN：1435-9871
电子版ISSN：1435-9871
出版年度：2006
卷号：14
页码：541-574
DOI：10.4054/DemRes.2006.14.22
出版社：Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research
摘要：This paper describes an approach to incorporating the impact of HIV/AIDS and the effects of HIV/AIDS prevention and treatment programmes into a cohort component projection model of the South African population. The modelled HIV-positive population is divided into clinical and treatment stages, and it is demonstrated that the age profile and morbidity profile of the HIV-positive population is changing significantly over time. HIV/AIDS is projected to have a substantial demographic impact in South Africa. Prevention programmes - social marketing, voluntary counselling and testing, prevention of mother-to-child transmission and improved treatment for sexually transmitted diseases - are unlikely to reduce AIDS mortality significantly in the short term. However, more immediate reductions in mortality can be achieved when antiretroviral treatment is introduced.
关键词：antiretroviral therapy;demographic impact;HIV/AIDS prevention;simulation;South Africa