文章基本信息

标题：Modeling fertility curves in Africa
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作者：Ezra Gayawan, Dr. ; Samson B. Adebayo ; Reuben A. Ipinyomi 等
期刊名称：Demographic Research
印刷版ISSN：1435-9871
电子版ISSN：1435-9871
出版年度：2010
卷号：22
页码：211-236
DOI：10.4054/DemRes.2010.22.10
出版社：Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research
摘要：The modeling of fertility patterns is an essential method researchers use to understand world-wide population patterns. Various types of fertility models have been reported in the literature to capture the patterns specific to developed countries. While much effort has been put into reducing fertility rates in Africa, models which describe the fertility patterns have not been adequately described. This article presents a flexible parametric model that can adequately capture the varying patterns of the age-specific fertility curves of African countries. The model has parameters that are interpretable in terms of demographic indices. The performance of this model was compared with other commonly used models and Akaike’s Information Criterion was used for selecting the model with best fit. The presented model was able to reproduce the empirical fertility data of 11 out of 15 countries better than the other models considered.
关键词：Africa;age-specific fertility rate (ASFR);Akaike Information Criterion;complementary error function;cubic/quadratic spline;polynomial model