文章基本信息

标题：Can Next-Generation Vehicles Sustainably Survive in the Automobile Market? Evidence from Ex-Ante Market Simulation and Segmentation
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作者：Shin, Jungwoo ; Lim, Taehoon ; Kim, Moo Yeon 等
期刊名称：Sustainability
印刷版ISSN：2071-1050
出版年度：2018
卷号：10
期号：3
页码：1-16
出版社：MDPI, Open Access Journal
摘要：Introduced autonomous and connected vehicles equipped with emerging technologies are expected to change the automotive market. In this study, using stated preference (SP) data collected from choice experiments conducted in Korea with a mixed multiple discrete-continuous extreme value model (MDCEV), we analyzed how the advent of next-generation of vehicles with advanced vehicle technologies would affect consumer vehicle choices and usage patterns. Additionally, ex-ante market simulations and market segmentation analyses were conducted to provide specific management strategies for next-generation vehicles. The results showed that consumer preference structures of conventional and alternative fuel types primarily differed depending on whether they were drivers or non-drivers. Additionally, although the introduction of electric vehicles to the automobile market is expected to negatively affect the choice probability and mileage of other vehicles, it could have a positive influence on the probability of purchasing an existing conventional vehicle if advanced vehicle technologies are available.
关键词：advanced vehicle technologies; alternative fuel vehicles; market segmentation; multiple discrete-continuous extreme value