文章基本信息

标题：The Effects of an Energy Use Paradigm Shift on Carbon Emissions: A Simulation Study
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作者：Wu, Yuzhe ; Luo, Jiaojiao ; Shen, Liyin 等
期刊名称：Sustainability
印刷版ISSN：2071-1050
出版年度：2018
卷号：10
期号：5
页码：1-18
出版社：MDPI, Open Access Journal
摘要：Carbon dioxide emissions in developing countries are closely tied to their economy and play a crucial role in the world’s future emissions. In this paper, we put forward an alternative energy use paradigm shift of low-carbon emissions from operational, governance, institutional, and cultural viewpoints (OGIC). An urbanization factor is introduced into the Kaya identity, and three simulations are conducted to forecast the carbon footprint and to explore the effects of the energy use paradigm shift policy. The simulation results show that, in the context of the energy use paradigm shift, the years 2015 and 2024 are the two inflection points that separate the carbon footprint into three periods of extensive consumption (2000–2015), early energy transition (2016–2023), and late energy transition (2024–2030). Overall, the peak carbon emission value is forecasted to appear during the third stage. The findings are expected to demonstrate the effects of the energy use paradigm shift on carbon emissions and assist policy makers formulate a scientific policy framework for low carbon development.
关键词：low carbon emissions; energy use paradigm shift; Kaya identity; OGIC analysis