文章基本信息

标题：Space-Time Hybrid Model for Short-Time Travel Speed Prediction
本地全文：下载
作者：Qi Fan ; Wei Wang ; Xiaojian Hu 等
期刊名称：Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society
印刷版ISSN：1026-0226
电子版ISSN：1607-887X
出版年度：2018
卷号：2018
DOI：10.1155/2018/7696592
出版社：Hindawi Publishing Corporation
摘要：Short-time traffic speed forecasting is a significant issue for developing Intelligent Transportation Systems applications, and accurate speed forecasting results are necessary inputs for Intelligent Traffic Security Information System (ITSIS) and advanced traffic management systems (ATMS). This paper presents a hybrid model for travel speed based on temporal and spatial characteristics analysis and data fusion. This proposed methodology predicts speed by dividing the data into three parts: a periodic trend estimated by Fourier series, a residual part modeled by the ARIMA model, and the possible events affected by upstream or downstream traffic conditions. The aim of this study is to improve the accuracy of the prediction by modeling time and space variation of speed, and the forecast results could simultaneously reflect the periodic variation of traffic speed and emergencies. This information could provide decision-makers with a basis for developing traffic management measures. To achieve the research objective, one year of speed data was collected in Twin Cities Metro, Minnesota. The experimental results demonstrate that the proposed method can be used to explore the periodic characteristics of speed data and show abilities in increasing the accuracy of travel speed prediction.