文章基本信息

标题：The evolution of regional economic interlinkages in Europe
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作者：María Dolores Gadea-Rivas ; Ana Gómez-Loscos ; Danilo Leiva-Leon 等
期刊名称：Documentos de Trabajo / Banco de España
印刷版ISSN：0213-2710
电子版ISSN：1579-8666
出版年度：2017
卷号：1
出版社：Banco de España
摘要：This paper studies the dynamics of the propagation of regional business cycle shocks inEurope and uncovers new features of its underlying mechanisms. To address the lack ofhigh frequency data at the regional level, we propose a new method to measure timevaryingsynchronization in small samples that combines regime-switching models anddynamic model averaging. The results indicate that: (i) in just two years, the Great Recessionsynchronized Europe twice as much as the European Union integration process did overseveral decades; (ii) Ile de France is the region acting as the main channel for the transmissionof business cycle shocks in Europe; followed by Inner London and Lombardia; and (iii) weidentify a nonlinear relationship between sectoral composition and regional synchronization,which was amplifi ed in the wake of the Great Recession. Similarities in services sectors areprimarily responsible for this nonlinear relationship.
关键词：business cycle; sectoral composition; regime-switching; model averaging.