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标题：On the direct and indirect real effects of credit supply shocks
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作者：Laura Alfaro ; Manuel García-Santana ; Enrique Moral-Benito 等
期刊名称：Documentos de Trabajo / Banco de España
印刷版ISSN：0213-2710
电子版ISSN：1579-8666
出版年度：2018
卷号：1
出版社：Banco de España
摘要：We consider the real effects of bank lending shocks and how they permeate the economythrough buyer-supplier linkages. We combine administrative data on all fi rms in Spain witha matched bank-fi rm-loan dataset incorporating information on the universe of corporateloans for 2003-2013. Using methods from the matched employer-employee literature forhandling large data sets, we identify bank-specifi c shocks for each year in our sample.Combining the Spanish Input-Output structure and fi rm-specifi c measures of upstreamand downstream exposure, we construct fi rm-specifi c exogenous credit supply shocks andestimate their direct and indirect effects on real activity. Credit supply shocks have sizabledirect and downstream propagation effects on investment and output throughout theperiod but no signifi cant impact on employment during the expansion period. Downstreampropagation effects are comparable or even larger in magnitude than direct effects. Theresults corroborate the importance of network effects in quantifying the real effects of creditshocks and show that real effects vary during booms and busts.
关键词：bank-lending channel; employment; investment; output; matched employeremployee;input-output linkages.