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标题：Causal Nexus Between Export and Economic Growth in the European Union Countries
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作者：Gitana Dudzevičiūtė ; Agnė Šimelytė ; Jūratė Antanavičienė 等
期刊名称：Montenegrin Journal of Economics
印刷版ISSN：1800-5845
电子版ISSN：1800-6698
出版年度：2017
卷号：13
期号：2
页码：107-120
出版社：Economic Laboratory for Transition Research Podgorica
摘要：The relationship between export and economic growth is still a topicof discussion by researchers. Some studies have confirmed thatexport leads to economic growth, while others see economic growthleads to export. Many countries are still in a dilemma of whether toopen up their economies to promote export or whether they shouldconcentrate on economic activities, which will promote export. Thispaper has aimed to examine export – growth nexus in the EuropeanUnion (EU) countries during the period of 1995 – 2015.Descriptive statistics analysis and econometric methods have beenapplied for this purpose. On the basis of correlation analysis, twentytwocountries have had significant relationships between export andeconomic growth. Granger causality test has been applied to detectthe direction of causality.The research has found unidirectional causality running from exportto GDP in Poland, Portugal, Slovakia and Sweden. In contrast, unidirectionaleffects from GDP to export have been detected in eleventhe EU countries, such as Belgium, Bulgaria, Cyprus, Czech Republic,Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Netherlands, Romania andSlovenia. Moreover, the research also has noticed bidirectionalcausality in Denmark. That is, GDP causes export and vice versa.Finally, in six countries, such as Austria, France, Germany, Italy,Luxembourg and Malta Granger causality has not been found. Itmeans that export does not cause economic growth and vice versa.The presence of a causal link between export and economic growthhas implications of great importance on development strategies forthe EU countries.
关键词：export;economic growth;correlation analysis;Granger causality;European Union.