文章基本信息

标题：The application of ship oil spill risk prediction in Dongying emergency capacity planning
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作者：Yuxin Zhu ; Ying Wang ; Xin Xu 等
期刊名称：IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science
印刷版ISSN：1755-1307
电子版ISSN：1755-1315
出版年度：2018
卷号：153
期号：3
页码：032044
DOI：10.1088/1755-1315/153/3/032044
语种：English
出版社：IOP Publishing
摘要：This study combines the hydrodynamic prediction model MIKE21 and the oil spill model OILMAP. Using the hydrodynamic prediction model to provide the accurate tidal current field for oil spill model, we apply oil particle tracing method and stochastic simulation method to predict and evaluate the risk of oil spill in the planned port area. The numerical simulation results show that the current and the wind will directly affect the range and trajectory of the oil film. Once the oil spill accident happens, the area with probability greater than 70% is about 191.5km², which is mainly affected by 5km within two sides of port. Through risk prediction and assessment, we can provide necessary support for the regional emergency forces.