文章基本信息

标题：Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model to Predict Graduate Unemployment in Indonesia
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作者：Umi Mahmudah
期刊名称：Practice and Theory in Systems of Education
电子版ISSN：1788-2591
出版年度：2017
卷号：12
期号：1
页码：43-50
DOI：10.1515/ptse-2017-0005
语种：English
出版社：Walter de Gruyter GmbH
摘要：Nowadays it is getting harder for higher education graduates in finding a decent job. This study aims to predict the graduate unemployment in Indonesia by using autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model. A time series data of the graduate unemployment from 2005 to 2016 is analyzed. The results suggest that ARIMA (1,2,0) is the best model for forecasting analysis, where there is a tendency of increasing number for the next ten periods. Furthermore, the average of point forecast for the next 10 periods is about 1,266,179 while its minimum value is 1,012,861 the maximum values is 1,523,156. Overall, ARIMA (1,2,0) provides an adequate forecasting model so that there is no potential for improvement.
关键词：forecasting ; time series ; graduate unemployment ; higher education