文章基本信息

标题：Modeling and Forecasting Gasoline Consumption in Cameroon using Linear Regression Models
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作者：Emmanuel Flavian Sapnken ; Jean Gaston Tamba ; Salome Njakomo Essiane 等
期刊名称：International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy
电子版ISSN：2146-4553
出版年度：2018
卷号：8
期号：2
页码：111-120
语种：English
出版社：EconJournals
摘要：In this study we model and forecast gasoline consumption in Cameroon till 2020. We start by estimating price and income elasticities of gasoline consumption using historical data for the period 1994-2010. Our estimates of price elasticity range between -1.433 and -0.151, while income elasticity range between 0.179 and 1.801. These results are similar with findings in other developing countries. We then establish a dynamic regression model for forecasting gasoline consumption. Usual statistical performance measures are used to validate the model. Results suggest that price, GDP and income are significant drivers of gasoline consumption in Cameroon. Projected results show that gasoline consumption will increase by over 7% yearly, reaching 1 078 504 m 3 by 2020. Following these findings, we recommend energy policies in Cameroon to prioritize the discovery of new oil fields, expand and modernize refining capacities to increase production, and improve storage capacities of petroleum products by at least 2020.
关键词：Gasoline consumption; Forecasting; Cameroon