文章基本信息

标题：Between Scylla and Charybdis: Delayed mitigation narrows the passage between large-scale CDR and high costs
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作者：Jessica Strefler ; Nico Bauer ; Elmar Kriegler 等
期刊名称：Environmental Research Letters
印刷版ISSN：1748-9326
电子版ISSN：1748-9326
出版年度：2018
卷号：13
期号：4
页码：044015
DOI：10.1088/1748-9326/aab2ba
语种：English
出版社：IOP Publishing Ltd
摘要：There are major concerns about the sustainability of large-scale deployment of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies. It is therefore an urgent question to what extent CDR will be needed to implement the long term ambition of the Paris Agreement. Here we show that ambitious near term mitigation significantly decreases CDR requirements to keep the Paris climate targets within reach. Following the nationally determined contributions (NDCs) until 2030 makes 2 °C unachievable without CDR. Reducing 2030 emissions by 20% below NDC levels alleviates the trade-off between high transitional challenges and high CDR deployment. Nevertheless, transitional challenges increase significantly if CDR is constrained to less than 5 Gt CO₂ a⁻¹ in any year. At least 8 Gt CO₂ a⁻¹ CDR are necessary in the long term to achieve 1.5 °C and more than 15 Gt CO₂ a⁻¹ to keep transitional challenges in bounds.