文章基本信息

标题：Correlation Neglect and Overconfidence. An Experimental Study
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作者：Markus Spiwoks ; Kilian Bizer
期刊名称：Journal of Applied Finance and Banking
印刷版ISSN：1792-6580
电子版ISSN：1792-6599
出版年度：2018
卷号：8
期号：3
出版社：Scienpress Ltd
摘要：For the first time in economic research, the present experimental study confronted participants with the task to predict stock prices ex ante in order to analyze the interrelation of the behavioral anomalies overconfidence and correlation neglect. The study shows that the participants considerably overestimate their accuracy of forecasting (overconfidence). Almost half of all participants (42.2%) disregard the correlation among return developments for different financial instruments (correlation neglect). It was also observed that the correlation neglect, when forecasting diversified financial instruments (funds), has a cushioning effect on overconfidence.
关键词：Behavioral Finance; Experiments; Stock Price Forecasts; Correlation Neglect; Overconfidence