文章基本信息

标题：Establishment of the Sustainable Ecosystem for the Regional Shipping Industry Based on System Dynamics
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作者：Geng, Xiaoqiao ; Wen, Yuanqiao ; Zhou, Chunhui 等
期刊名称：Sustainability
印刷版ISSN：2071-1050
出版年度：2017
卷号：9
期号：5
页码：1-18
出版社：MDPI, Open Access Journal
摘要：The rapid development of the shipping industry has brought great economic benefits but at a great environmental cost; exhaust emissions originating from ships are increasing, causing serious atmospheric pollution. Hence, the mitigation of ship exhaust emissions and the establishment of the sustainable ecosystem have become urgent tasks, which will require complicated and comprehensive systematic approaches to solve. We address this problem by establishing a System Dynamics (SD) model to help mitigate regional ship exhaust emissions without restricting economic growth and promote the development of the sustainable ecosystem. Factors correlated with ship exhaust emissions are identified, and a causal loop diagram is drawn to describe the complicated interrelations among the correlated factors. Then, a stock-and-flow diagram is designed and variable equations and parameter values are determined to quantitatively describe the dynamic relations among different elements. After verifying the effectiveness of the model, different scenarios for the sustainable development in the study area were set by changing the values of the controlling variables. The variation trends of the exhaust emissions and economic benefits for Qingdao port under different scenarios were predicted for the years 2015–2025. By comparing the simulation results, the effects of different sustainable development measures were analyzed, providing a reference for the promotion of the harmonious development of the regional environment and economy.
关键词：ship exhaust emissions; regional economic income; sustainable ecosystem; System Dynamics; scenario simulation